Mixed / fixed-period mortgage · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Mixed / fixed-period mortgage in ポルトガル rises from 3.55% today to 4.30% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
データ更新日 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Portuguese mortgages have historically been Euribor-linked with a bank spread on top, so the outstanding stock reprices within three, six or twelve months of a rate move depending on the index chosen. Fixed and mixed-rate products have gained share since 2022 but the floating stock remains larger than in northern Europe, which makes Portuguese household debt service unusually sensitive to ECB decisions.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in ポルトガル, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| 月 | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | 予測 Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | スプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.50% | 3.60% | +1.09pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.51% | 3.63% | +1.13pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.73% | 3.71% | +0.98pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.73% | 3.77% | +1.04pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.81% | 3.83% | +1.02pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.99% | 3.92% | +0.93pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.99% | 3.99% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-05 | 3.06% | 4.06% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-06 | 3.14% | 4.13% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-07 | 3.19% | 4.20% | +1.01pp |
| 2027-08 | 3.19% | 4.25% | +1.06pp |
| 2027-09 | 3.21% | 4.30% | +1.09pp |
| 国 | Typical Product | 住宅ローン金利 | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| スロバキア | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +1.80pp |
| エストニア | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.70pp |
| ラトビア | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.50pp |
| ギリシャ | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| リトアニア | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| オランダ | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| キプロス | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| イタリア | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| アイルランド | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| ベルギー | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.20pp |
| ドイツ | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.15pp |
| オーストリア | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| スロベニア | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| ポルトガル | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| クロアチア | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| ルクセンブルク | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| フランス | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +0.95pp |
| スペイン | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| フィンランド | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| マルタ | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +0.80pp |