アイルランドの住宅ローン金利:ECB市場価格による12カ月予想

アイルランドの住宅ローン金利:ECB市場価格による12カ月予想

3-5-Year fixed · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank

Estimated, not live: The ECB MFI interest-rate series for this member did not return a value on the last run. The figures below are periodically recalibrated estimates, not a live reading.

Will アイルランド mortgage rates go up or down over the next 12 months?

Higher +56bp

Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 3-5-Year fixed in アイルランド rises from 3.75% today to 4.31% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.

Today
3.75%
3-5-Year fixed
Implied in 12 months
4.31%
2027-08
Implied change
+56bp
Policy rate 2.25% → 2.98%

データ更新日 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.

Mortgage Rate
3.75%
3-5-Year fixed
ECB Deposit Rate
2.25%
Shared by all 20 members
Spread vs ECB
+1.50pp
Lender margin over policy
10Y Govt Bond
2.85%
Harmonised long-term rate

How mortgages work in アイルランド

Irish mortgage rates have historically sat above the euro-area average, a legacy of high non-performing loan ratios, a concentrated lending market and capital requirements on Irish mortgage books. Fixed periods of one to five years dominate new lending, with green mortgage discounts for energy-efficient homes now a significant part of the pricing. Because the typical fix is short, Irish borrowers roll onto new rates far more often than German or Dutch ones, which makes the ECB path unusually consequential for anyone buying now.

The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in アイルランド, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.

Implied 12-month path for アイルランド

The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.

Implied ECB Deposit Rate予測 3-5-Year fixedスプレッド
2026-102.47%3.79%+1.32pp
2026-102.47%3.82%+1.35pp
2026-112.55%3.86%+1.31pp
2026-122.68%3.92%+1.24pp
2027-012.68%3.97%+1.28pp
2027-022.75%4.02%+1.27pp
2027-032.86%4.08%+1.23pp
2027-042.86%4.13%+1.28pp
2027-052.92%4.18%+1.27pp
2027-062.96%4.23%+1.27pp
2027-072.98%4.28%+1.30pp
2027-082.98%4.31%+1.33pp

アイルランド compared with the rest of the euro area

Typical Product住宅ローン金利Spread vs ECB
スロバキアFixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr)4.30%+2.05pp
エストニアEuribor-linked variable4.20%+1.95pp
ラトビアEuribor-linked variable4.00%+1.75pp
ギリシャFixed-period mortgage3.90%+1.65pp
リトアニアEuribor-linked variable3.90%+1.65pp
オランダ10-30-Year fixed3.85%+1.60pp
キプロスFixed-period mortgage3.85%+1.60pp
イタリア20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso3.75%+1.50pp
アイルランド3-5-Year fixed3.75%+1.50pp
ベルギー20-Year fixed3.70%+1.45pp
ドイツ10-Year Festzinsbindung3.65%+1.40pp
オーストリア10-15-Year fixed3.60%+1.35pp
スロベニアFixed-rate mortgage3.60%+1.35pp
ポルトガルMixed / fixed-period mortgage3.55%+1.30pp
クロアチアFixed-rate mortgage3.55%+1.30pp
ルクセンブルクFixed-rate mortgage3.55%+1.30pp
フランス20-25-Year taux fixe3.45%+1.20pp
スペイン15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo3.35%+1.10pp
フィンランドEuribor-linked variable3.35%+1.10pp
マルタVariable-rate mortgage3.30%+1.05pp

Frequently Asked Questions

On current market pricing, no. Futures pricing implies the typical 3-5-Year fixed in アイルランド rises from 3.75% today to 4.31% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. That path assumes the European Central Bank policy rate follows the futures curve and the mortgage spread returns to its long-run average of 1.30 percentage points. It is what the market implies, not a forecast.

The typical mortgage in アイルランド is the 3-5-Year fixed, currently 3.75% as of 2026-09-05. The European Central Bank policy rate is 2.25%, so borrowers pay a spread of 1.50 percentage points over the policy rate, covering the lender's funding cost, credit risk and margin.

About 85% of a European Central Bank policy rate change reaches the typical mortgage rate in アイルランド, and it takes roughly 4 months to get there. The rest is absorbed by the lender's spread, which moves with bond yields, funding conditions and competition rather than with the policy rate itself.

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