20-25-Year taux fixe · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 20-25-Year taux fixe in フランス rises from 3.45% today to 4.01% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
データ更新日 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
The French norm is a taux fixe running for the whole term, typically 20 to 25 years, so a French borrower who signs today has locked their rate for the life of the loan. Rates are constrained by the taux d'usure, a legal ceiling set quarterly at the previous quarter's average rate plus one third. Because the ceiling lags the market, French origination volumes visibly seize up when market rates rise faster than the cap, which is exactly what happened through 2022 and 2023.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in フランス, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| 月 | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | 予測 20-25-Year taux fixe | スプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.49% | +1.02pp |
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.52% | +1.05pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.55% | 3.56% | +1.01pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.68% | 3.62% | +0.94pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.68% | 3.67% | +0.98pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.75% | 3.72% | +0.97pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.86% | 3.78% | +0.93pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.86% | 3.83% | +0.98pp |
| 2027-05 | 2.92% | 3.88% | +0.97pp |
| 2027-06 | 2.96% | 3.93% | +0.97pp |
| 2027-07 | 2.98% | 3.98% | +1.00pp |
| 2027-08 | 2.98% | 4.01% | +1.03pp |
| 国 | Typical Product | 住宅ローン金利 | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| スロバキア | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +2.05pp |
| エストニア | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.95pp |
| ラトビア | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.75pp |
| ギリシャ | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| リトアニア | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| オランダ | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| キプロス | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| イタリア | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| アイルランド | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| ベルギー | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.45pp |
| ドイツ | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.40pp |
| オーストリア | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| スロベニア | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| ポルトガル | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| クロアチア | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| ルクセンブルク | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| フランス | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +1.20pp |
| スペイン | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| フィンランド | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| マルタ | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +1.05pp |