Euribor-linked variable · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Euribor-linked variable in エストニア rises from 4.20% today to 4.76% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
データ更新日 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Estonia is the most Euribor-exposed mortgage market in the euro area, with essentially all lending floating against 6-month Euribor. Bank margins are wide relative to the western euro area because the market is concentrated among a small number of Nordic-owned banks, which is why the Estonian spread over the ECB rate sits above the euro-area average even though the index tracks it exactly.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in エストニア, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| 月 | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | 予測 Euribor-linked variable | スプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 4.24% | +1.77pp |
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 4.27% | +1.80pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.55% | 4.31% | +1.76pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.68% | 4.37% | +1.69pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.68% | 4.42% | +1.73pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.75% | 4.47% | +1.72pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.86% | 4.53% | +1.68pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.86% | 4.58% | +1.73pp |
| 2027-05 | 2.92% | 4.63% | +1.72pp |
| 2027-06 | 2.96% | 4.68% | +1.72pp |
| 2027-07 | 2.98% | 4.73% | +1.75pp |
| 2027-08 | 2.98% | 4.76% | +1.78pp |
| 国 | Typical Product | 住宅ローン金利 | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| スロバキア | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +2.05pp |
| エストニア | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.95pp |
| ラトビア | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.75pp |
| ギリシャ | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| リトアニア | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| オランダ | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| キプロス | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| イタリア | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| アイルランド | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| ベルギー | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.45pp |
| ドイツ | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.40pp |
| オーストリア | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| スロベニア | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| ポルトガル | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| クロアチア | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| ルクセンブルク | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| フランス | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +1.20pp |
| スペイン | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| フィンランド | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| マルタ | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +1.05pp |